Saturday, November 19, 2022

The Economics of Electric Vehicles

 

EVs are expensive because many of their parts are expensive, particularly batteries.  To make EVs appear affordable, governments subsidize their purchase, the subsidy being paid by everyone in the tax base.  Charging stations are likewise subsidized both as to their construction and installation as well as the actual rate per kilowatt-hour.

In contrast, fossil-fueled vehicles (FVs) are currently relatively expensive to operate because fossil-fuels are heavily taxed, the opposite of a subsidy.  Governments use the revenue from fossil-fuels to maintain the roads, but over time, that revenue will disappear as EVs displace FVs, and it will have to be made up from some other source, likely EVs and electricity.  At some point in the future, we can expect that all vehicles will be EVs, and their fuel, electricity, will have to be taxed at rates similar to that currently for fossil-fuels.  In other words, electricity is going to become very expensive.

Complicating that is the current push for 'renewable energy': wind and solar.  Barring some near-miraculous technological leap, it is clear to everyone who studies the available data that all renewable energy sources combined cannot supply enough energy to support even a 20th-century 1st-world civilization.  Failing to develop nuclear power, our standard of living is going to devolve drastically, perhaps to a standard that George Washington would find tolerable.  21st-century Americans will not like being pushed back 200 years.

So, if renewable energy can't handle even today's demand, where is all this electricity we're currently using coming from?  In large part, it's coming from coal and other similarly dirty fuels.  It may be that EVs are actually more polluting than FVs.

There is also the issue of facility availability.  People who own homes will have the option of having their own personal charging station, but renters, especially apartment dwellers, will probably not.  They will be forced to rely on public charging stations, paying a surcharge for the use of the facility and dealing with either long waiting lines or appointments.  While FVs 'recharge' in 5 minutes, EVs take hours.  This will also play heavily into the economics of 'road trips'.  Drive 6 hours, recharge for 3 hours.  That's a whole day of travel for some people.  A coast-to-coast road trip will take 10 days, 9 overnight stays in hotels along the way.  As of right now, long road trips are too expensive for EV owners, put aside the fact that recharging facilities may not be available where and when needed for such an adventure.

One proposed solution to the problem of "recharge time" is to make batteries easily swappable.  When an EV arrives at a recharge station, its battery is measured for charge, pulled, replaced with a fully-charged battery, and the driver pays the difference between charge levels, possibly with a fixed fee for labor to do the swap.  If the swap can be done reasonably quickly (less than 20 minutes) it gives the travelers time to visit the restroom, grab something to eat/drink, and get back to their car.  For this to be feasible, all cars will have to share a single interface to their battery.  There may be many manufacturers or brands of battery, but they all have to fit into the same space and connect the same way.

Along the way from here to there, we will have to maintain parallel service facilities, one for EVs and another for FVs.  The chain of gas stations we today take for granted took 120 years to develop, but we need the same thing for our EVs to be ready tomorrow.

Not going to happen.  It's especially not going to happen when the ordinary consumer realizes how much this is all going to cost.  EVs are going to prove to be economically unfeasible.

—==+++==—

Update 6/26/23:  It's starting.

 

Thursday, November 17, 2022

How To Steal An Election

 

Over at The Conservative Treehouse a few days back, somebody posted a suggestion about how an election could be stolen, and I've been thinking about that from a systems standpoint. 

The way elections are run in Florida, to get a mail-in ballot, the voter must initially request a mail-in ballot.  Thereafter, all that's required is a check mark on the mailed-in ballot that asks to continue in that mode.  This year, I fudged my ballot — by using blue ink instead of black — and had to go vote in person.  At the polling place, I surrendered my mail-in packet in trade for a fresh ballot for my precinct after displaying both my voter registration card and my driver's license, filled it out, and then I fed it into the ballot-reading machine under the watchful eye of a poll worker.

Republicans won every statewide election, some by very wide margins.  Ron DeSantis beat Charlie Crist by 1.5 million votes, and that was known within an hour of the polls closing.

In Arizona, with a fraction of Florida's population, Democrat Katie Hobbs beat Republican Kari Lake by a few thousand votes after a full week of counting.  Maricopa County, with 83% Republican registration, split 50-50.  Unbelievable... literally.

So, if Secretary of State Katie Hobbs wanted to steal that election, how might she go about it? 

First, some assumptions:  every voter has a voter-id number.  It's on my voter registration card, and when my mail-in ballot arrived, the return envelope was bar-coded with my number.  I have to presume every state does something similar.  This enables the scanning equipment to know that this ballot came from a registered voter, and the state database can be marked to indicate "this voter-id voted by mail".  Presumably, when one votes in person, the poll worker inputs the number shown on the voter registration card and the equipment marks the state database to indicate "this voter-id voted in person".  The state database thus knows — in real time — which voter-ids have already been used, and which voter-ids have not been used, and can thus prevent any voter-id being used more than once.

Second, there may be registered voters who do not realize that they are registered voters.  This is the result of so-called "motor voter" laws whereby one can be quietly and involuntarily registered to vote because of some innocuous interaction with the state:  getting a driver license, opening a business, applying for a homestead exemption...  In some states, this can happen even if one is not a citizen — and thus ineligible to vote at all.  None of those newly-minted voter-ids are associated with either
(a) a photo id, or
(b) a signature.

Third, while the return envelope is marked to indicate my voter-id number, the ballot is not.  The ballot is identical for all voters in a given precinct.  There is nothing to indicate who cast this ballot.

Putting these facts together, we see that the state database not only knows who voted and who has not, but it can produce a roster of non-voters by precinct.  If you intend to steal an election, that's critical information.  With a roster of non-voters and a printer, you can print however many ballots are needed to make up the difference between the current winner and your preferred candidate.  All you need after that is a crew of ballot-markers who are given a list of voter-ids that have not yet cast a ballot, a stack of unmarked ballots, and time to produce the needed votes.  The ballot-markers fill in the appropriate spots on the ballot, and tell the state database "this voter-id voted".

As far as anyone can tell, all of those manufactured votes are legitimate.  Proof of wrongdoing simply does not exist, so there is no way to "prove the election was stolen".  It's the perfect crime.

How can this be prevented?  Certain pathways must be blocked to prevent their use. 

  • mail-in ballots must be explicitly requested. 

    Sending ballots unsolicited must be forbidden.

  • Voter registration must be limited to real persons who present proof of their identity. 

    This is why Democrats fight so hard against so-called "voter suppression" laws.

  • Culling of voter rolls must be an ongoing process. 

    Voters who fail to vote in two consecutive elections must be culled from the registration lists.

  • All ballots must be in the hands of the poll workers within some short time after the polls close. 

    Allowing days or weeks to pass, and allowing sudden discoveries of previously unknown stacks of ballots is exactly the thing that allows that perfect crime of stealing an election.  The critical ingredient is 'time'.  Whenever voting results are delayed, the outcome is a narrow victory, usually by a Democrat.  Same-day voting results are often characterized by huge margins of victory, often by Republicans.

All of these measures will be fought tooth-and-claw not because "they suppress voter turnout", but because they make it difficult or impossible to steal an election.  If you want to see honest elections going forward (and who doesn't?), we must get control of the process.  Failure to do that is the greatest threat to our democracy.

 

Wednesday, November 2, 2022

About "The Farside Chronicles"

 

Book One of "The Farside Chronicles" ("The Door") begins with a short anecdote wherein one voice, the inventor, outlines a way to solve the perennial problem of 'where shall I park the car?' using dimensional distortion.  The second voice, the other, remains skeptical of the feasibility of the method.

I recall being involved in just such a conversation during the year I spent at Manhattan College as a Physics major.  The first voice is that of one John Patrick Celenza, my classmate, and the second voice is mine.  The idea John planted decades ago germinated in my mind as a story-line that became, after voluminous re-work, The Farside Chronicles.

In the late 80s or early 90s, personal computers made it possible — no, made it easier — to write and edit material such as books and other treatises.  That was probably the start of what has become a publishing revolution on a par with Gutenberg.  It became feasible for someone with such an interest to actually write a book and have it published — for a fee, of course.  Since childhood, I had been 'a writer', often scribbling in pencil in one of those black-and-white marble-patterned notebooks my latest opus, none of which ever survived long enough to actually meet a typewriter.  Now in possession of my very own computer, I could write to my heart's content, saving my output onto 3½" floppy disks and revising whenever it seemed necessary or prudent.  My first serious effort beginning soon after I became a PC owner was, naturally, the story that eventually would become "The Door".  As with so many such tasks, it progressed fairly quickly to 95% complete, and remained there permanently.  Every now and then, I would open the file containing 'the book', reread it, and try to compose an ending that satisfied my heart.  Nothing worked.  It felt as though I had painted myself into a corner, and I could not even imagine how I might rewrite myself clear of it.  I put it aside and moved on other things.

About 2006, I observed that the nature of politics was undergoing a sea-change.  Everything about it was becoming much more adversarial and contentious.  Where once Nixon and Kennedy could have engaged in a reasoned debate on the issues, then shook hands when it was over, there was no more hand-shaking going on.  The major political parties weren't shooting at each other, but they were clearly 'at war'.  It seemed to me that we were within a stone's throw of graduating to actual gunfire.  I began to write a story about a gruesome school shooting that prompts a call for the repeal of the 2nd amendment, and leads to a second American civil war.  In 2011, I self-published "Tipping Point" via Author House, a vanity press headquartered in Indiana.

—==+++==—

It might be useful to know how book publication has changed over the past half-century.

As recently as 1985, an aspiring author would laboriously type (double-spaced) 'the book', often rewriting sections or chapters at the urging of amateur or professional editors, and send (the original or a Xerox copy) to Random House or Alfred Knopf or ...

The book would disappear into the bowels of the publisher's workrooms and would result in one of several outcomes:

  1. a rejection letter (typically);
  2. suggestions for changes (sometimes);
  3. an acceptance letter (rarely).

If accepted, the publisher causes the work to be typeset preparatory to printing, delivers the galley proofs to one or more editors/proofreaders, who make sure the final product is ready for prime time.  Then the book is printed, typically in multiples of 10,000 copies, a quite expensive proposition.

If the book sells, royalties will be paid to the successful author and more printing will happen.  If the book doesn't sell, the publisher is on the hook for all those costs.

Successful books wind up at Barnes&Noble for $37.95 and everybody is happy.  Unsuccessful books wind up at Books-A-Million for $5, $2, or $1, and only Books-A-Million is happy, but not very happy.

That doesn't happen (much) anymore.

These days, an aspiring author may approach a well-known publisher, but these typically are no longer interested in unsolicited manuscripts.  Their unspoken rule of business is "Don't call us; we'll call you."

Instead, the author self-publishes by contracting with any of several vanity presses.  The services provided by the vanity press are centered around making a manuscript look like a book.  They do not care how well-written or poorly-written the manuscript is.  They will — for a fee — check spelling, punctuation, and grammar.  They are not taking any risk; the author is.

The cover art, the book's body text and illustrations, are sent as computer files to any of several on-demand-publishers, but mostly to Ingram in Tennessee, the world's largest.  Ingram is able to produce a book by separately producing the body text and the cover, and assembling the components in the right order.  Ingram can produce one book; they can produce 100 books; they can produce 10,000 books, on demand.

So, a prospective book buyer sees a book advertised on Amazon and adds it to their cart.  Amazon sends the order to Ingram and pays Ingram the agreed price.  Ingram produces a book as ordered, plus a mailing label, the book is boxed and handed over to USPS, FedEx, UPS, or equivalent, and Ingram pays the publisher the agreed price.  The publisher keeps their share and pays the author the agreed royalty.  It is possible that, for a given book, this never happens.

The cost to get to ink-on-paper is borne entirely by the author.  In rare cases, the author's phone will ring and someone from Random House will invite her to come to New York to talk about her next book.

—==+++==—

"Tipping Point" enjoys a small but steady popularity and provides a stream of royalties that is thin enough that it may never pay me back for what it cost to see the book in print.  I am, unsurprisingly, reluctant to do it again.

However, seeing "Tipping Point" finally launched took a weight off my shoulders such that I began to entertain the notion of finishing that mothballed book.  I re-read it and began to try alternative endings, finally settling on one that completely satisfied me.  Unwilling to press on toward publishing it, however, it went back on the shelf, finished at last, but only enough to satisfy my desire to have it done.

It was some time before it occurred to me that I had left that story in such a state that a sequel was possible.  I sometimes describe it as 'the book itself whining to me that it was lonely and needed company'.  Besides, I was, at that point, semi-retired and a stay-at-home pensioner, Nielsen Media having flushed me with my first-ever layoff.  With nothing better to do, I started writing 'book two'.  It was as if I could not prevent the words flowing onto the page.  Once you have opened the floodgates, as Thomas Sowell once observed, you cannot tell the water where to go.  Four months after starting it, "The Town" had taken its final shape.  I wrapped a metaphorical ribbon around the two volumes and stowed them both back onto their virtual shelf.

"No, no," they now called to me in chorus.  "Not done!  Not done!  You can't leave the story there!"

I began book three, then contract work interfered with progress as I found myself back in Texas living on 'bachelor status' and working long hours for Bank of America.  Eventually, "Farside Colony" joined its sisters on that virtual shelf, whereupon the first two taught the newcomer the theory and practice of wheedling.  Thus there is now a fourth book, "Farside Legacy", that effectively ends the chronicles.

The four are available via Kindle Direct Publishing.

 

Monday, October 31, 2022

Paul Pelosi

 

Normally, I would wait until the dust had a chance to settle before writing about current events, but the 'Paul Pelosi affair' is too weird to admit of any more than a single explanation.

To recap the events:  Paul Pelosi, husband of the Speaker of the House, called 9-1-1 at 2am to report an intruder that

  • he didn't know
  • named 'David'
  • who was 'a friend'

according to the 9-1-1 dispatcher.  SFPD responded in record-short-time and were admitted by an unidentified third person, found Paul and 'David', both in a state of undress, struggling over possession of a hammer, ordered the two men to drop the hammer — which Paul Pelosi did — upon which, David smacked Paul in the head with the hammer.  SFPD then took David into custody and called EMTs for Paul.  Initial reports were that David broke into the house by smashing a window in and demanded to know "Where's Nancy?"

What's weird about this tale is that the house in question is the residence of the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, the person third in line to the Presidency, and that it was (we are told) broken into.  Further, Paul Pelosi didn't know the intruder except that he was named David and was a friend.  The window was, by photographic evidence, smashed out, not in because the glass shards were on the outside.  SFPD was on the scene in two shakes of a lamb's tail.  This scenario does not pass the 'smell test'.

I estimate that there is approximately a zero percent chance that this house is not guarded every minute of every day from January 1st to December 31st inclusive — by SFPD.  In other words, nobody was inside that house absent an invitation.  David could not have gained entry whether in his underwear or otherwise without passing an SFPD sentry.  David could not have smashed a window in without alerting one of the policemen on guard.  When alerted by dispatch, SFPD was already on the scene.  Therefore, David had been invited in, and SFPD knew he was there.

Period.

Paul Pelosi, rumors say, has been spotted at gay bars downtown on numerous occasions.  David was thus not just 'a friend'.  David was a male prostitute, and Nancy's hubby is gay.

Talk about "an October surprise"!

 

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Now, This Is Funny

 

A guy in Ohio put up a FaceBook page that looked suspiciously like what the Parma (OH) PD might have for their public-facing... umm... face, except that any such official page that contained the stuff that was on that page would have gotten the Mayor and the Chief of Police ridden out of town on a rail.

Naturally, the police arrested him for mocking them.  Judicial activity ensued.  Lots of judicial activity.  So much that it is now wending its way toward The Supreme Court of the United States™ ®U.S.Pat.Ofc.

It is now at the stage of a petition for certiorari, and thus there are amicus curiae (friend of the court) briefs.

The Onion has weighed in on the issue with its own brief that you should go read.

The most serious part of the whole thing is this:

The petition for certiorari should be granted, the rights of the people vindicated, and various historical wrongs remedied.  The Onion would welcome any one of the three, particularly the first.
The rest of it is screamingly funny, and all of the citations and footnotes are true.

—==+++==—

Update Oct 29, 2022:  The Babylon Bee has added its voice to the hue and cry for a writ.  While not as funny (or as timely) as that of The Onion, It nevertheless makes some good points, especially that getting acquitted of such a criminal charge is both (a) "cold comfort", and (b) not guaranteed.

 

Sunday, October 9, 2022

Free Speech

 

Recently, we have been witness to several instances where right-leaning speakers invited to address the student body at prestigious institutions of higher learning (Yale, Harvard, Princeton among others) have been shouted down by activist students to the extent that the speakers have been unable to do the task for which they had been invited.  In more than one case, police were necessary to ensure the safety of the speakers and whisked the visitors away from danger.  In response, this week a number of federal judges announced that they would henceforth not hire law clerks from the Yale population.  I suspect it's likely this prohibition will soon extend to other law schools as well.

Free speech is the sine qua non of a democratic society.  Without the ability to question dogma, progress halts.  This seems not to be a concept well understood by many current college students, and that flaw has not been eradicated by the faculties or administrations of those colleges.  One must assume, therefore, that the faculties and administrations share the activists' disdain for hearing opinions they find offensive.

If that is not true, those universities have precious little time left to salvage what remains of their reputations.  They may want to and yet be unable to imagine a path out of this swamp.  For any such institutions, here is a modest proposal for working your way clear:

  1. Every student should be issued a picture-ID and be required to have that device visible on their person at all times while they are on campus, and to present it to campus police on demand.

  2. No one can be admitted to any campus event without displaying their student ID or a visitor badge obtained for the purpose.

  3. When campus police have to be called to the scene of a student riot — that's what these events are — the CPs collect the IDs of all the unruly participants.  Having your student ID thus confiscated must be seen as a prelude to expulsion.

  4. Involved visitors should be cited for trespassing and permanently banned from the campus.

Until the management of these institutions make it clear that uncivilized behavior will not be tolerated, uncivilized behavior will occur.  It's as simple as that.  Colleges and universities must make the choice either to coddle their students or to preserve their reputations.

 

Saturday, October 1, 2022

Economics

 

economics
ĕk″ə-nŏm′ĭks, ē″kə-
noun
The social science that deals with the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services and with the theory and management of economies or economic systems.

The above is a poor definition of 'economics' because it includes the misleading phrase "... and management ...".  No one can manage an economy.  Economists study the principles of economics in order that they may predict the result of this policy or that one, but their predictions are always guesses, and are often wrong to a greater or lesser degree.

Because economists (try to) predict economic outcomes, non-economists surmise that the process can be run in reverse: that we can start at the effect we wish and back into the policy that will deliver that effect.  It is an attractive fallacy, and we need no more proof than the hot messes and dumpster fires of failed economies that got where they are because some politician had sufficient hubris to believe that economies can be managed.  No one can manage an economy.  There is no person or group of persons, no matter their educational credentials, who can force an economy to behave as they wish.

The only way to 'manage' an economy is to get out of its way.  Any politician who tells you s/he can fix the economy's shortcomings is either lying or stupid.  If they don't themselves believe what they're saying, they think you're stupid.  If you believe them, you are.

Beyond that, economics is a 'social science'.  Social sciences are not sciences no matter the name assigned to them.  The 'scientific method' involves four major activities: observation, hypothesis, experimentation, and analysis.  Implicit in this is that the results are shared among other scientists who replicate the experiment(s) to ascertain that the published results are, indeed, replicable and not one-off flukes.  For most (if not all) social sciences, experimentation is difficult-to-impossible, and replication of results likewise difficult-to-impossible.  Social sciences thus fail the test of being actual science and so reside in the realm of theoretical pursuits.  Few, if any, economic nostrums can be guaranteed to work as predicted, and often fail spectacularly.

No one can manage an economy.