Inmates In Charge Of The Asylum

 

Notes from the front lines of the war against CoViD-19: This is (I think) Day-12 of our ordeal.  Bars and restaurants and other places where people typically congregate (including places of worship) are closed by diktat, Clearwater Beach is closed in the middle of Spring Break, school is out until at least April 1, everyone is on a de facto lock-down because — really, where can we go?  There have been about 160 deaths from exposure to CoViD-19.

'Seasonal flu' kills people at rates 100 times that, but (we're told) CoViD-19 hasn't 'peaked'.

Small businesses that rely on a more-or-less constant flow of paying customers are hurting so bad that many of them may not survive until they're allowed to re-open, but — not to worry! — the SBA has loans and grants to tide them over, and a bi-partisan budget expansion — paid for by you, of course, — will surely pass on its first appearance.  The employees of those businesses are furloughed because (a) the business is closed, and (b) they're not allowed to travel (or strongly discouraged).  Many of those employees are low-wage workers heavily dependent on tip income.  Ah, well, at least there's unemployment, and by now the mandatory two-week waiting period is just about over, and they'll be allowed to apply so they'll get their first check after (maybe) another week.  Or two.

Larger businesses have the advantages of scale and the ability to hunker down and mothball their capacity, so this mandatory shut-down is a huge boon to them as far as 'competition' is concerned.  Smaller businesses?  Bummer, Dude.

This artificial impact on businesses from coast to coast is a cratering event for the various stock markets and the economy in general.

Time for a reality check:  the earliest data we have on CoViD-19 comes to us from a cruise ship, the Diamond Princess.  That environment is 2,000-3,000 people in relatively close proximity for a week or more, passing germs back and forth at every meal.  Many of those passengers are older and are much more at-risk than is the general population.  That looks very like a 'worst-case scenario'.  And what conclusions can we draw from the Diamond Princess?

Worst case:  The Diamond Princess tells us that the contagion rate (who's going to catch it?) will probably top out around 20%.  For the U.S. population as a whole, that's 600,000 people, and 80% who won't catch it regardless.  20% of those infected (120,000) will show symptoms severe enough to require intervention, real quarantine and/or hospitalization, some of them in an ICU.  10% of that (12,000) will die.

We lose more than that to seasonal flu, and we lost way more than that to the H1N1 Swine Flu epidemic during the Obama administration, and nobody got anywhere near this excited back then.  In short, this is not Captain Trips, and we are not all going to die, and we are almost certainly over-reacting.  The worsening economy is a net negative for Donald Trump whose re-election campaign will almost certainly focus on economic performance issues.

The biggest loser is the Constitution.  Isn't it amazing that what is almost certainly an ordinary virus is all it takes for the American people to look the other way when the government virtually repeals the First Amendment?  Peaceably assemble for dinner or a beer?  Nope, all those places are closed and we don't want you traveling, and we especially don't want you gathering in groups!  Freedom of worship?  Maybe after the crisis passes (heh heh heh).

Never let a crisis go to waste.