You always have to have a plan, but it doesn't always have to be the same plan.
When we first heard about Coronavirus, COVID-19, the reports were sketchy and the number of cases was small. "Small" in statistics equates to "unreliable", so we should have heavily discounted the initial speculations of a 6% fatality rate. "6%' is a scary number. It's 1-out-of-16. In this country, 6% is 20 million dead Americans. People panicked. The country went into quarantine in an attempt to slow the spread of the disease.
As the number of cases grew, the conclusions drawn grew more reliable. Soon we revised the fatality rate down to 3%. That's still 10 million dead Americans, but it was based on testing increasing numbers of people who were exhibiting symptoms. People without symptoms were assumed (!!) to be uninfected. They weren't being tested because test kits were scarce.
Something else was becoming obvious: almost everyone who died from COVID-19 had other underlying issues, what are called "co-morbidities". Yes, they died from COVID-19, but they might not have died if they weren't obese, diabetic, had heart disease, or something else that turned them into a fragile patient.
As test kits became available, people without symptoms began to be tested and we discovered something startling. Huge numbers of people were showing positive test results, and they were asymptomatic. They had already contracted COVID-19 and shrugged it off.
The federal government, in an effort to get good data, offered states a little bonus to compensate them for the extra work they had to do collecting COVID-19 statistics. Effectively, the feds were paying the states for reporting COVID-19 cases. Guess what happens? Mr. Jones dies after being mugged, and on 'post' he's discovered to be positive for COVID-19. Presto-chango! He's a COVID-19 death. Suddenly, there's a huge bump in the fatality rate. The reported fatality rate can't be relied upon because it may be artificially inflated. It's almost certainly lower than reported. What does this tell us?
- COVID-19 is ferociously contagious. You almost can't escape it. If you don't catch it in April, you'll pick it up in May.
- COVID-19 is not very deadly. The latest estimates of the fatality rate are down in the 0.03% range, 3-in-10,000. That's still 100,000 dead Americans, but that's a long way away from 20 million.
- Your greatest chance of catching it occurs indoors. Fresh air and sunlight are hazardous to the virus and suppress its transmission, and thus are healthy for potential hosts (us).
Some countries, notably Sweden, have taken the attitude that COVID-19 is going to have to run its course, and their numbers (cases-per-capita, deaths-per-capita) are not noticeably different than ours. Given this, what of our reaction to the pandemic?
- Unless you or a loved one is in an at-risk population, staying indoors too much is a bad idea. It spreads the virus. Efforts to keep people out of places like parks and beaches is exactly the wrong thing to do.
- Even if you are in an at-risk population, sunlight and fresh air are probably good for you.
- 'Social distancing' probably doesn't work. Almost certainly, it isn't doing what we hope it's doing.
- Shutting down the economy and disemploying so many people was stupid and irresponsible.
- The experts think everything is working well, and we should keep doing this until we're all destitute.
You always have to have a plan, but it doesn't always have to be the same plan.
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